Megatrends

More and more people are coming to live, work, and commute in the same area of the capital region. This increases traffic congestion and requires us to prioritize urban spaces and develop a robust infrastructure capable of supporting this growth.

At the same time, technological developments such as electrification, autonomous vehicles, and artificial intelligence could significantly change our transportation needs. New trends such as COVID-19, the climate crisis, and geopolitical shifts have already brought resources, emergency preparedness, and changing transportation patterns into sharp focus.

Future mobility therefore depends to a large extent on policy choices—such as regulating parking and traffic through congestion charges, changes to the “proximity to stations” principle, and urban development planning that supports public transit.

Through its megatrend analysis, Metroselskabet has set out to identify and gather knowledge about the trends that may influence future transportation in the capital region, with a primary focus on the Central Municipalities and the metro’s catchment area.

Infrastructure is among the largest and most long-term investments we make as a society. New investments must both address immediate needs and remain socially relevant in 30, 50, and 100 years.

Metroselskabet has prepared a megatrend report that examines the trends expected to have the greatest impact on the development of public transportation through 2070, based on the knowledge and assumptions we have today. Some trends lie beyond political control, while others can be influenced through political regulation and policy frameworks to shape future developments.

The analysis aims to establish a common foundation for understanding the trends that may shape the mobility of the future, thereby informing the decisions made in future planning.

We have identified 15 trends that may influence future mobility, which are detailed in this report. The 15 trends are grouped into four themes:

• Settlement and Population
• Labor Market and Employment
• Leisure and Tourism
• Technology and New Forms of Transportation

 

Selected Insights

The Capital Region is growing—and more residents mean more trips.
Population is the factor that has the greatest impact on transportation demand. The Capital Region is growing, and an increase of 200,000–400,000 residents by 2070 could potentially result in up to one million additional daily trips. Therefore, there is a need for a high-quality public transit system, such as the metro, that can efficiently move large numbers of passengers.

More trips and cheaper car travel lead to traffic congestion.
Given current trends and regulations, it will become cheaper to drive an electric car per kilometer traveled, while public transit fares are expected to rise in line with inflation. This poses a price challenge to public transit and contributes to the continued rise in road congestion. Conversely, a larger share of passengers in the future—due in part to rising living standards—is expected to prioritize comfort and time savings over price when choosing a mode of transportation. Political regulation of fares and car traffic can change the dynamics and reduce congestion.

Proximity to a station is crucial for the choice of transportation mode.
A distance of less than 500 meters from a metro station results in four times as many metro trips as a location more than 1,000 meters from the station. The location of new urban areas and new stations therefore has a major influence on future transportation patterns.

Driverless cars and taxis can both support and challenge public transportation.
Driverless modes of transportation are expected to be rolled out over the coming decades. They are not expected to have a significant impact on the need for public transportation in dense urban areas during rush hour due to road congestion. However, comfort and efficiency could make driverless taxis a major competitor to public transportation, especially outside of rush hour and away from areas near transit stations. If, on the other hand, regulations for driverless taxis are designed in conjunction with public transportation, they could potentially support public transit services.

Working from home has stabilized, but labor market flexibility may affect commuter flows.
Working from home has stabilized at a level where, on average, a working person in the capital region works from home two days a month. The analysis also shows that working from home does not reduce overall travel activity. A growing number of older workers and greater demand for flexibility may mean that travel patterns will become more varied in the future, which could increase the need for a high-frequency public transit system operating throughout the day. However, a large proportion of trips will still occur during rush hour, creating significant peak-hour congestion. The demographic composition is changing—and this affects travel patterns

The Greater Copenhagen area is currently undergoing a number of demographic shifts, including an increase in the number of older adults and foreign residents. The composition of the population influences how much and how people travel. Changes in the population’s composition will affect passenger flows and travel patterns, and thus future demands for capacity and frequency. Growth in tourism and the experience economy is creating an increased passenger base for public transportation, particularly outside of rush hour.